Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa42f…65f5 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%47W / 7L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,140per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$61
world 6% −$147
politics 4% −$3
other 4% +$4
sports 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 86% 0% -11.4%
all 54 -0.1% -9.6% 87% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,342) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$4,315
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses47 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage244d
Avg bet$1,140
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,074 $4,077 +$3 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $238 $238 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $4,308 +$4 +0%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $51 +$1 +3%
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch May 31 $48 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $1,157 −$148 -13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $1,153 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February? Apr 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $1,359 +$3 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? Feb 01 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $10-$11 on the final day of trading of t Jan 31 $1,357 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? Jan 30 $1,357 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $1,356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? Jan 28 $1,356 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 27? Jan 28 $1,354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 26? Jan 27 $1,353 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 January 19-25? Jan 26 $1,352 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 25? Jan 26 $1,350 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th Jan 24 $362 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$260 on the final day of trading of the w Jan 24 $987 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 22? Jan 23 $380 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on January 22? Jan 23 $968 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 20? Jan 21 $1,346 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.50 on January 19? Jan 20 $1,345 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 18 Jan 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on January 18? Jan 19 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 18? Jan 19 $832 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 17? Jan 18 $1,342 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 10 $1,276 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 8? Dec 09 $1,275 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 December 1-7? Dec 08 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 07 $1,272 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 5? Dec 06 $1,271 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 4 Dec 05 $1,270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 3? Dec 04 $342 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 3? Dec 04 $927 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 2? Dec 03 $1,267 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on December 1? Dec 01 $1,266 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $1,259 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 30? Dec 01 $1,257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on November 28? Nov 29 $1,256 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 27-November 2? Nov 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on November 1? Nov 02 $1,322 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,321 +$1 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 31 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 30 $1,322 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 28? Oct 29 $1,322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 27? Oct 28 $1,320 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26? Oct 27 $1,319 +$1 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 27 $1,319 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $238 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $4,075 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,308 20h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 3d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 10d
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch SELL No 69¢ $48 23d
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch BUY No 67¢ $48 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 34¢ $1,008 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,157 65d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 100¢ $1,153 68d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,359 141d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1,359 143d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $10-$11 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 100¢ $1,357 144d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $1,357 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,059 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,356 146d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,354 147d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 147d
Will XRP dip to $1.70 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $1,352 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,350 149d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $362 151d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$260 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $987 151d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $380 152d
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $968 152d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,346 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,314.86 · official $4,314.86 (match) · 132 history records