Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A4 0xa42f…b629 sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$436 (+18%) realized +$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%53W / 38L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$326
14 days+$392
30 days+$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$280
other 35% +$121
world 4% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +20.0% +8.6% 55% 51% +7.0%
≤30d 91 +20.8% +9.3% 58% 53% +5.9%
≤90d 91 +20.8% +9.3% 58% 53% +5.9%
all 91 +20.8% +9.3% 58% 53% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 53% +5.9%
10% -1.1% 37% -4.3%
15% -10.7% 27% -13.5%
20% -19.4% 21% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses53 / 38
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage15d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $46 +$24 +53%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$23 +50%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 −$5 -32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$5 -33%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $46 +$14 +30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $46 +$112 +242%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $17 +$9 +51%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +12%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $46 −$5 -10%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $46 −$2 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 $0 -1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$16 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$14 +31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $46 +$33 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$6 +13%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 +$6 +14%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $46 +$31 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -40%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $46 +$16 +35%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $45 +$9 +20%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$2 -5%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$7 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +212%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
CD Castellón leading at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $54 +$56 +102%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $46 +$38 +84%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $46 +$4 +9%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $46 +$13 +29%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 +$12 +27%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$8 +17%
Spread: IR Tanger (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +367%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$6 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $46 −$7 -14%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $46 −$17 -37%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $46 −$29 -62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$2 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $45 −$1 -1%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $46 +$122 +263%
Spread: CD Ñublense (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $39 +$5 +13%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $39 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $29 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $46 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $69 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 2¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $14 22h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 86¢ $60 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $46 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $159 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $45 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 76¢ $44 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $46 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $46 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 75¢ $14 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 75¢ $28 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 75¢ $19 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records