Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa42b…3803 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,455 (+1%) realized +$1,455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%37W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,956per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$769
14 days+$769
30 days+$1,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$135
other 31% +$1,077
sports 7% +$286
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.9% -2.3% 100% 23% -5.3%
≤30d 17 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 24% -5.4%
≤90d 34 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 15% -8.1%
all 37 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 14% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 14% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 8% -17.1%
15% -22.3% 0% -25.1%
20% -29.9% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$6,264) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses37 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage98d
Avg bet$2,956
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$83 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$15 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $801 +$21 +3%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$44 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,508 +$279 +4%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,703 +$92 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $1 $0 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $6,408 +$281 +4%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6,126 +$28 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $6,270 +$124 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 06 $6,264 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? May 03 $6,458 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $6,452 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $6,446 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $6,400 +$42 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $6,389 +$15 +0%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 05 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5,273 +$115 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $3,900 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $6,263 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $6,244 +$19 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $6,232 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $6,213 +$19 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $100 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 96¢ $6,508 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $6,302 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Spurs 76¢ $1 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $6,308 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 25d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Thunder 100¢ $100 27d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6,001 32d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records