Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa42b…ead5 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$511 (+7%) realized +$524 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$512
7 days+$658
14 days+$455
30 days+$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$334
sports 9% +$62
crypto 9% +$35
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 50% +14.6%
≤30d 19 -9.3% -17.9% 53% 53% -3.1%
≤90d 19 -9.3% -17.9% 53% 53% -3.1%
all 21 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 48% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 48% -3.2%
10% -28.7% 48% -12.5%
15% -35.5% 43% -20.9%
20% -41.9% 24% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$202 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$768
Realized+$524
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage237d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $281 $274 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $759 +$512 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $264 −$259 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $414 +$426 +103%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $631 +$287 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $132 −$90 -68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 −$79 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$313 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $128 +$41 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $404 +$230 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $424 +$159 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$169 -67%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $354 +$249 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$11 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $503 −$500 -99%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $288 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $759 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $264 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 87¢ $840 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $414 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $94 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $919 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $278 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $353 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $132 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $81 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $819 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 10d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $583 10d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $424 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $84 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $354 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.79 · official $767.79 (match) · 43 history records