Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa42b…45d2 crypto 1216 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 169d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,163 (-3%) realized −$1,161 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%665W / 548L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days+$60
14 days−$87
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$159
other 28% −$482
sports 21% +$37
world 0% +$52
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +17.0% +5.9% 54% 54% -6.0%
≤30d 97 +13.2% +2.5% 53% 53% -12.5%
≤90d 553 -8.2% -16.9% 48% 40% -22.8%
all 1213 -1.1% -10.6% 55% 49% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 49% -11.9%
10% -19.1% 46% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 37% -28.0%
20% -34.1% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$1,161
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses665 / 548
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1213 / 1216
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Panthers vs. Stars Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sheffield United FC (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 +$10 +29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 +$20 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$17 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$51 +994%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $12 +$6 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $26 +$25 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$11 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $81 +$23 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$16 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$46 +224%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $19 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 19¢ $13 35h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 34¢ $15 35h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $20 35h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $101 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 10¢ $10 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $35 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $10 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $14 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 24¢ $5 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $15 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $15 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.31 · official $247.31 · 3500 history records