Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa42a…8c68 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%48W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$6
crypto 6% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 55 +0.2% -9.4% 87% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses48 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage525d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? Apr 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 03 $25 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $6,000 −$6 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Texas win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 09 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $435 - 440b on February 28? Mar 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 61d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $33 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 93d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 149d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 180d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $45 182d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 210d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $37 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 240d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $25 242d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 271d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 301d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $24 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 332d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $25 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 362d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.53 · official $56.53 (match) · 112 history records