Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa428…2e2c world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$13
other 17% −$3
politics 9% −$1
crypto 8% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 15% -11.8%
≤90d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 14% -11.6%
all 41 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -11.0%
10% -20.0% 2% -19.6%
15% -27.7% 2% -27.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage397d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $31 −$10 -32%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $81 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $17 +$3 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $6 +$2 +43%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $36 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $37 −$2 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -5%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 31 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $16 $0 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will BTC close above $102K on May 23? May 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 23 $9 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 18 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $21 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 44¢ $31 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $36 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $36 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $37 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $37 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $11 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $29 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $11 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $9 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $45 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $25 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.51 · official $25.06 (match) · 119 history records