Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A4 0xa426…7b84 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,612 (+5%) realized +$906 · open +$706

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate64%9W / 5L

Drawdown69%max

Avg bet$1,988per market

Trades / day9.8pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$12,705now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-0.4%	-9.9%	64%	50%	+7.4%
≤30d	14	-0.4%	-9.9%	64%	50%	+7.4%
≤90d	14	-0.4%	-9.9%	64%	50%	+7.4%
all	14	-0.4%	-9.9%	64%	50%	+7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.8 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.9%	50%	+7.4%
10% ← realistic here	-18.5%	50%	-2.9%
15%	-26.4%	50%	-12.3%
20%	-33.6%	14%	-20.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$928 vs −$789 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$12,705

Realized+$906

Unrealized+$706

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses9 / 5

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage5d

Avg bet$1,988

Trades / day9.8

Drawdown69%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	70¢	84¢	$4,000	$4,803	+$803 (+20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$3,500	$3,477	−$23 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$3,000	$3,256	+$256 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$1,500	$1,169	−$331 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$11,162	+$5,043	+45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3,229	+$1,534	+48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$17	+$7	+42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$260	−$243	-94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2,049	−$1,790	-87%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$773	+$340	+44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,447	−$962	-66%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$483	+$386	+80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$396	−$210	-53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$371	+$24	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$239	+$132	+55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$221	+$19	+8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$957	−$738	-77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$2,007	+$872	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$504	55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,009	56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$1,009	56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$504	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$1,009	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$3,525	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,540	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16,204	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	72¢	$801	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$1,000	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$998	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$42	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$723	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$4,038	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,762	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$199	12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$24	28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$24	28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	69¢	$17	29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	4¢	$17	29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	60¢	$260	29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	9¢	$259	29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$507	31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$606	31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,112	31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	8¢	$0	32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	74¢	$485	32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	21¢	$485	32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	60¢	$288	32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$435	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,705.44 · official $12,705.44 (match) · 59 history records