Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa41e…e39b crypto 1669 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,209 (+4%) realized +$6,209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%1606W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day108.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,769
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1194 -37.7% -43.6% 60% 3% -20.4%
≤30d 2106 -20.2% -27.8% 76% 6% -13.8%
≤90d 2106 -20.2% -27.8% 76% 6% -13.8%
all 2106 -20.2% -27.8% 76% 6% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 6% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 2% -22.0%
15% -41.0% 1% -29.6%
20% -46.8% 1% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1606 / 500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2106 / 1669
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day108.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2106 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $80 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $96 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $94 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records