Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa41d…8328 other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-9%) realized −$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$60
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$64
sports 14% −$32
crypto 2% +$5
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +28.7% +16.5% 38% 38% +10.8%
≤30d 42 -9.7% -18.3% 29% 29% -6.3%
≤90d 42 -9.7% -18.3% 29% 29% -6.3%
all 83 -12.5% -20.8% 33% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 33% -18.3%
10% -28.4% 31% -26.1%
15% -35.3% 30% -33.3%
20% -41.6% 23% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage266d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$54 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 $0 -2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$11 +365%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-02-08? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Angers SCO vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $7 +$9 +127%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 25h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.45 · official $55.45 (match) · 125 history records