Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa41c…fade
sports · 207 markets active 6h ago
1.0score
+$141,468 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$141,520 · open −$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,689
Realized+$141,520
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses97 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$5,752
Open positions3
Markets (closed)204 / 207
Avg bet$4,014
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 204 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93,013
7 days+$101,388
14 days+$103,183
30 days+$75,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,800 $1,671 −$129 (-7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $772 $833 +$61 (+8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $169 $184 +$16 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $4,700 $0 −$4,700 (-100%)
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage OG 44¢ 0¢ $4,595 $0 −$4,595 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 12¢ 0¢ $3,048 $0 −$3,048 (-100%)
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea South Korea 11¢ 0¢ $3,498 $0 −$3,498 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 23¢ 0¢ $2,760 $0 −$2,760 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Tundra Esports 39¢ 0¢ $8,382 $0 −$8,382 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 FlyQuest 49¢ 0¢ $4,900 $0 −$4,900 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 34¢ 0¢ $3,740 $0 −$3,740 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Xtreme Gaming 34¢ 0¢ $5,100 $0 −$5,100 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Xtreme Gaming 45¢ 0¢ $5,400 $0 −$5,400 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Vici Gaming 24¢ 0¢ $2,401 $0 −$2,401 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs magic 21¢ 0¢ $2,310 $0 −$2,310 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 38¢ 0¢ $7,177 $0 −$7,177 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 41¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs LGD Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $4,900 $0 −$4,900 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs LGD Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $4,170 $0 −$4,170 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 0¢ $6,000 $0 −$6,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Lynn Vision 37¢ 0¢ $4,440 $0 −$4,440 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner OG 20¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 29¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4,073 +$6,183 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6,077 +$4,449 +73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6,315 +$73,886 +1170%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,398 −$2,340 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,155 +$10,835 +107%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10,949 −$10,800 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,721 −$4,700 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,249 −$4,170 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,990 +$6,499 +163%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5,242 +$7,745 +148%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,975 −$4,900 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3,818 −$3,800 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,060 +$2,932 +72%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,273 +$5,717 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $4,071 −$4,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,085 −$4,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3,568 +$6,432 +180%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,297 +$4,693 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $10,350 +$9,650 +93%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $6,108 +$8,877 +145%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $4,291 −$4,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5,850 +$6,150 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $6,689 +$5,311 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $6,000 +$5,988 +100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $4,996 −$4,900 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $3,059 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $10,749 +$9,251 +86%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $4,975 −$4,900 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4,351 −$4,300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3,050 +$3,768 +124%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3,053 −$3,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $8,550 +$6,435 +75%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $6,566 −$6,566 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $6,121 −$6,120 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3,740 −$3,740 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $7,310 −$7,177 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $5,400 −$5,400 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $5,413 −$5,413 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $9,000 +$9,071 +101%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 20 $3,480 −$3,480 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $3,314 −$3,314 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 20 $3,473 +$8,478 +244%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $3,828 +$8,116 +212%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $2,280 −$2,272 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $6,953 −$6,953 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $3,318 −$3,316 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$160,453
other 9% −$6,710
politics 2% −$12,638
crypto 1% +$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $4,073 5h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6,077 14h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $17,284 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $2,398 20h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $3,287 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $83 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $100 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,500 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $3,988 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $97 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 23h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +70.3% +54.1% 55% 55% +70.2%
≤30d 55 +13.2% +2.4% 42% 42% +14.6%
≤90d 71 +13.3% +2.5% 44% 44% +12.3%
all 204 +11.1% +0.5% 48% 47% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 47% +6.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 45% -4.2%
15% -17.9% 44% -13.4%
20% -25.9% 42% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,688.51 · official $2,688.51 (match) · 3500 history records