Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa413…4cff world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$11
other 24% +$16
politics 12% +$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 9 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 0% -12.6%
all 27 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -8.7%
10% -17.8% 4% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 4% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage266d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $112 −$10 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 $0 +1%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $27 +$17 +61%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $18 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 31h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $23 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $36 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records