Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa40d…6173 sports 1639 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1620W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$10
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$122
weather 18% +$29
other 16% +$27
finance 2% +$4
crypto 2% +$3
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 214 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1433 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 1638 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1620 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1638 / 1639
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 1h
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $95 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $3 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $97 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $100 7h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $100 13h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 100¢ $100 15h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $100 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $100 47h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $100 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $10 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 100¢ $38 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records