Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa40d…ea7a other 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$12,482 (+50%) realized +$13,342 · open −$860
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%70W / 57L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$9,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$156
sports 11% −$21,397
crypto 9% −$500
politics 1% +$20
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+110.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +150.7% +126.8% 47% 38% -28.9%
≤30d 108 +136.8% +114.3% 56% 45% -22.1%
≤90d 127 +132.4% +110.3% 55% 46% -67.0%
all 127 +132.4% +110.3% 55% 46% -67.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +110.3% 46% -67.0%
10% ← realistic here +90.1% 35% -70.2%
15% +71.8% 28% -73.1%
20% +54.9% 24% -75.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +132% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +232% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$523 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$9,257
Realized+$13,342
Unrealized−$860
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses70 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions45
Markets (closed)127 / 109
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$228
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $5,131 $4,328 −$803 (-16%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $849 $940 +$92 (+11%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $844 $907 +$63 (+7%)
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 88¢ $555 $847 +$292 (+53%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $336 $386 +$50 (+15%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $338 $354 +$17 (+5%)
Will Brazil go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $281 $282 +$0 (+0%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $169 $180 +$10 (+6%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $428 $150 −$279 (-65%)
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $133 $145 +$12 (+9%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $306 $91 −$215 (-70%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $117 $71 −$46 (-39%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $65 $69 +$5 (+7%)
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 66¢ $67 $59 −$8 (-11%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $72 $51 −$21 (-30%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 42¢ $60 $42 −$19 (-31%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-14%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-15%)
Will United States score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $29 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+23%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-30%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $19 +$3 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Jun 24 $29 +$58 +200%
Will Anthony Gordon have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Ch Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -236%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win UEFA Group B for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $0 $0 +180%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $328 −$381 -116%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $1,483 −$385 -26%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 24 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Young Boys win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Desire Doue win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $47 −$43 -92%
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 24 $4 −$10 -248%
Will Slovenia win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 24 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Poland win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 24 $0 +$49 +54499%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Open Championship? Jun 24 $1 −$3 -272%
Will Switzerland win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jun 24 $1 $0 -44%
Will Japan win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 24 $8 −$10 -128%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rennes win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Jun 24 $97 −$93 -96%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $1,192 −$1,372 -115%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World C Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Georgia win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 24 $0 $0 +214%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 22? Jun 24 $42 +$237 +564%
Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 24 $401 −$469 -117%
Will Nice finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? Jun 24 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 24 $559 −$618 -111%
Will VfB Stuttgart beat Bayern Munich? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Open Championship? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $552 −$456 -83%
Will Mainz win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $58 +$780 +1345%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 24 $71 −$242 -343%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Germany win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bayern München score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions Lea Jun 24 $1 +$9 +1720%
Will Marius Mouandilmadji score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Eur Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pedro Neto be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roma win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Jun 24 $0 $0 +4032%
Will Germany win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $276 −$576 -209%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 24 $116 −$94 -81%
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 24 $47 −$39 -84%
Will Ousmane Dembélé be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Jun 24 $1 +$3 +225%
Will Ferencváros win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 24 $1 +$44 +6507%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Jun 24 $7 −$543 -7332%
Will Lille win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 24 $13 −$18 -142%
Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 24 $0 +$4 +11891%
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12m
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 33m
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 33m
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 3¢ $48 1h
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 1h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $56 2h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro SELL Yes 78¢ $5 4h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $42 4h
Will Brazil go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 89¢ $39 5h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,256.52 · official $9,256.52 (match) · 3500 history records