Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa40b…1f2b politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$2
sports 25% −$1
other 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
world 3% −$1
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -9.8% -18.4% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage228d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $84 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $83 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $85 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $82 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 -56%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $88 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $87 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $86 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 15 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $82 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 104d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 110d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 0¢ $1 111d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 111d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 123d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 127d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 129d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 143d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $84 143d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $84 144d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $83 145d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $83 147d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 152d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 153d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 155d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $86 156d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $86 158d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 159d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 160d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $84 161d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $84 162d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $83 163d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $83 164d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $85 165d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $85 168d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 169d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.77 · official $81.77 (match) · 142 history records