Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa40a…0daa crypto 760 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$840 (-5%) realized −$835 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate38%290W / 468L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day239.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$187
14 days−$933
30 days−$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$938
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -13.2% -21.4% 32% 18% -15.1%
≤30d 758 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 16% -14.9%
≤90d 758 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 16% -14.9%
all 758 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 16% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 16% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 10% -23.1%
15% -34.3% 7% -30.5%
20% -40.8% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$835
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses290 / 468
Open positions2
Markets (closed)758 / 760
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day239.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 758 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 67¢ 86¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 27¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$24 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.37 · official $20.32 · 3500 history records