Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa408…3f58 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 17% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.9% -14.9% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 11 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 8% -9.6%
all 30 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage468d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $93 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $3 $0 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 25 $14 −$1 -8%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross less than $0.9m opening weekend? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Feds raid Jay-Z before April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $47 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $42 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 43h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $49 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 63¢ $13 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 57¢ $32 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 56¢ $40 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 56¢ $3 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $44 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $43 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.89 · official $46.89 (match) · 75 history records