Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa407…3e06 crypto 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,912 (-24%) realized −$9,924 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%203W / 328L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$742
7 days+$742
14 days+$708
30 days+$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$10,305
other 0% +$111
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +51.3% +36.9% 70% 70% +68.0%
≤30d 15 +24.1% +12.3% 60% 60% +55.0%
≤90d 396 -17.9% -25.7% 41% 37% -24.9%
all 531 -20.7% -28.3% 38% 34% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 34% -32.3%
10% -35.1% 31% -38.8%
15% -41.4% 27% -44.7%
20% -47.1% 22% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$64 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$9,924
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses203 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)531 / 532
History coverage113d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 531 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 39¢ 44¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $136 +$143 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$148 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$156 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $156 +$169 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$81 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$18 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $38 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 17 $96 −$90 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 17 $28 +$27 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 17 $57 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $31 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 17 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 17 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 16 $41 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $36 +$42 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $176 −$158 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $278 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $252 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $260 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $325 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 40m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $163 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.03 · official $127.48 · 1644 history records