Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa405…3651 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$41
politics 22% −$12
sports 5% +$31
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 108 +3.5% -6.3% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 114 +3.3% -6.5% 11% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 9% -9.6%
10% -15.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage96d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $121 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $280 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $281 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $284 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $298 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 18 $293 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $108 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 17d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 18d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 20d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 22d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.00 · official $251.00 (match) · 341 history records