Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa404…05cf
crypto · 587 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$143 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$166 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses395 / 189
Open positions3
Markets (closed)584 / 587
History coverage43d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 584 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 53¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 46¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 551 -4.4% -13.5% 69% 7% -11.7%
≤30d 551 -4.4% -13.5% 69% 7% -11.7%
≤90d 584 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 10% -12.7%
all 584 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 10% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 10% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 7% -21.1%
15% -29.8% 5% -28.7%
20% -36.6% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.97 · official $14.97 (match) · 2472 history records