Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3fd…3412
other · 70 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage316d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 0 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$4 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $47 −$1 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $72 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $58 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $136 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $70 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $7 $0 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jan 30 $3 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $6 $0 +4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $4 $0 +10%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 27 $20 $0 -1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $29 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $1 +$1 +41%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? Aug 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $1 +$3 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$2
other 22% +$6
politics 13% $0
economics 7% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $2 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $44 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $13 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $9 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $25 42h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $71 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $32 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $32 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $45 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $72 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.7%
all 70 +4.1% -5.9% 41% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 3% -9.1%
10% -14.9% 3% -17.8%
15% -23.1% 3% -25.8%
20% -30.6% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records