Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3fd…255f
sports · 10 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 2 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 92¢ 90¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 88¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Toronto Tempo 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $6 −$5 -81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $15 −$3 -20%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$11
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 99¢ $30 3m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies $3 4m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies $1 17m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 10¢ $1 18m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $1 30m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $1 40m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $1 40m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $1 41m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $1 41m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $1 41m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 24¢ $1 43m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 24¢ $1 43m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 30¢ $1 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $1 55m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 32¢ $1 55m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $1 58m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 100¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 31¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 99¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 99¢ $50 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 84¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 14¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -68.3% -71.3% 14% 14% -84.6%
≤30d 8 -72.3% -74.9% 12% 12% -85.7%
≤90d 8 -72.3% -74.9% 12% 12% -85.7%
all 8 -72.3% -74.9% 12% 12% -85.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.9% 12% -85.7%
10% -77.3% 12% -87.1%
15% -79.5% 12% -88.3%
20% -81.5% 12% -89.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.59 · official $34.59 (match) · 68 history records