Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A3 0xa3fc…e230 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+4%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 30% $0
weather 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.6% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.6% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 35 +28.6% +16.4% 49% 3% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 3% -6.3%
10% +5.2% 3% -15.2%
15% -4.9% 3% -23.4%
20% -14.3% 3% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×20.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.49 per $1 lost it wins $31.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $79 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April? Mar 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 28 $19 $0 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 26 $2 +$21 +975%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $41 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $41 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records