Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3fc…c10a world 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-2%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$16
world 50% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -13.0% -21.2% 33% 17% -12.0%
≤90d 6 -13.0% -21.2% 33% 17% -12.0%
all 6 -13.0% -21.2% 33% 17% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 17% -12.0%
10% -28.8% 17% -20.4%
15% -35.7% 0% -28.1%
20% -42.0% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage18d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 29 $66 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 29 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 17 $451 −$15 -3%
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Jun 17 $454 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 11 $79 +$20 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $66 24m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 3h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 3h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $22 12d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $414 12d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $451 12d
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $454 12d
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $454 12d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 18d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 18d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $99 18d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 18d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records