Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa3fa…af3a sports 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$729 (+1%) realized +$714 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%253W / 272L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$252
14 days+$206
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$3,179
other 30% −$635
sports 17% −$2,704
world 3% −$785
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +32.7% +20.1% 68% 68% +12.9%
≤30d 27 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 59% +7.1%
≤90d 276 -14.4% -22.5% 47% 37% -10.3%
all 525 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 38% -10.3%
10% -26.1% 34% -18.9%
15% -33.2% 28% -26.7%
20% -39.8% 22% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$82 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$714
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses253 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)525 / 526
History coverage216d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 57¢ 69¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$18 -36%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $111 +$54 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$49 +93%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$115 +225%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $91 −$2 -2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$40 +130%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$23 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $39 +$9 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$14 +69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $49 +$5 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$25 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $16 +$21 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 12 $70 +$176 +252%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 12 $5,214 −$1,024 -20%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 12 $203 +$66 +33%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 11 $1,013 −$61 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $202 +$97 +48%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $303 −$49 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 10 $106 −$99 -93%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $506 −$29 -6%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $569 −$569 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $513 −$508 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,121 −$1,099 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1,626 −$1,626 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,615 +$716 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 08 $1,023 +$204 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $102 +$41 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 57¢ $71 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 7h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $61 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 9h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $10 12h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $101 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $166 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $0 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $89 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $31 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 30h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao $5 32h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $10 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $40 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 45¢ $20 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 46h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 46h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 87¢ $70 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $31 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.34 · official $77.98 · 1386 history records