Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f6…1093 crypto 1266 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%698W / 568L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$100
14 days−$740
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 42% -3.6%
≤30d 873 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 50% -12.0%
≤90d 1266 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 54% -11.4%
all 1266 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 54% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 54% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 52% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 51% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses698 / 568
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1266 / 1266
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$17 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$17 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$11 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records