Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f5…780d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-64%) realized −$8 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$10
other 31% +$12
sports 26% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 25% -47.0%
≤30d 4 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 25% -47.0%
≤90d 4 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 25% -47.0%
all 4 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 25% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 25% -47.0%
10% -12.6% 25% -52.1%
15% -21.1% 25% -56.7%
20% -28.8% 25% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden leading at halftime? Yes 38¢ 81¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+113%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +234%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.53 · official $8.53 (match) · 7 history records