Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3f5…42ca sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$714 (+6%) realized +$720 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate78%52W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$544
7 days+$1,175
14 days+$850
30 days+$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$605
other 6% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +12.8% +2.1% 95% 77% +1.7%
≤30d 67 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 61% -4.5%
≤90d 67 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 61% -4.5%
all 67 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 61% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 61% -4.5%
10% -17.3% 22% -13.6%
15% -25.3% 16% -22.0%
20% -32.6% 13% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$58 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$720
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses52 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage20d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 78¢ 76¢ $465 $459 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $862 +$184 +21%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $778 +$84 +11%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $698 +$77 +11%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $621 +$77 +12%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 16 $560 +$62 +11%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 16 $499 +$61 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $705 +$59 +8%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $342 +$58 +17%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $593 +$52 +9%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 14 $534 +$59 +11%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $482 +$53 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $445 +$38 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $400 +$44 +11%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $352 +$48 +14%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $336 +$17 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $288 +$48 +17%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $253 +$34 +13%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $228 +$25 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $198 +$31 +16%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $174 +$23 +14%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $107 +$41 +39%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $149 −$148 -99%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $135 +$14 +10%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 10 $123 +$12 +10%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 09 $90 +$11 +12%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $88 +$11 +12%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 07 $77 +$11 +14%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 07 $67 +$10 +15%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$20 +67%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $23 +$7 +31%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 06 $274 −$252 -92%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $8 +$7 +88%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $119 −$110 -92%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $58 +$11 +18%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 04 $25 +$26 +101%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 04 $21 +$4 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $46 +$24 +54%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 03 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 02 $42 −$42 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $3 +$2 +52%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $2 +$1 +59%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 80¢ $80 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $215 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $4 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $77 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $17 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $4 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $26 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 77¢ $43 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $862 7h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 90¢ $778 9h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $25 10h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $750 10h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 90¢ $698 12h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 89¢ $613 25h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 89¢ $8 25h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $3 32h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $4 32h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $552 32h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $560 33h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 89¢ $499 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $763 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $705 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 85¢ $342 2d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 92¢ $593 3d
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 90¢ $1 3d
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 90¢ $533 3d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 90¢ $183 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 90¢ $226 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 89¢ $7 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 89¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.00 · official $465.00 · 199 history records