Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A3 0xa3f4…aa77 crypto 295 markets active 2d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$740 (-1%) realized −$740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%290W / 5L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$185
crypto 46% −$562
weather 0% +$3
tech 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 54 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 295 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -10.6%
10% -18.5% 1% -19.2%
15% -26.4% 1% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$191 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses290 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)295 / 295
History coverage234d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 295 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $450 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $450 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $400 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $440 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $400 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $440 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $401 +$20 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contro May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 06 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Madrid Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Fils Apr 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 20 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 14? Apr 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 12? Apr 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? Apr 06 $400 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $405 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on Mar Mar 27 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $450 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $450 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $450 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $450 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $450 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $450 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $400 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $440 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $400 14d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $440 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 24d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $400 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 30d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $401 32d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 49d
Madrid Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Fils BUY Arthur Fils 92¢ $10 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $200 50d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 50d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 56d
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $4 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $400 61d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 593 history records