Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f3…9b44 crypto 450 markets active 6d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,356 (-31%) realized −$4,356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%98W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$687
crypto 41% −$2,552
other 8% −$324
culture 5% −$658
politics 1% −$125
economics 0% −$8
world 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.9% -55.5% 17% 17% -48.1%
≤30d 6 -50.9% -55.5% 17% 17% -48.1%
≤90d 6 -50.9% -55.5% 17% 17% -48.1%
all 450 -24.7% -31.9% 22% 22% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 22% -38.4%
10% -38.4% 22% -44.3%
15% -44.4% 22% -49.7%
20% -49.8% 22% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$30 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses98 / 352
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)450 / 450
History coverage234d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 450 Trades
no open positions (339 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$1 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $56 −$55 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $35 +$35 +101%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Feb 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia Feb 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? Feb 15 $27 +$73 +270%
Göztepe SK vs. Kayserispor: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Feb 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 15 $45 +$70 +156%
US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5 Feb 15 $13 −$13 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5 Feb 14 $37 +$63 +170%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) Feb 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 14 $86 +$89 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Feb 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 14 $87 +$120 +138%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles: O/U 137.5 Feb 14 $42 +$45 +108%
Yale Bulldogs vs. Dartmouth Big Green: O/U 151.5 Feb 13 $40 −$40 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Feb 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $55 +$67 +122%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - CCT South America Feb 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Wrexham AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Elche CF vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
FC Volendam vs. PSV: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $70 +$96 +137%
Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 13 $25 −$25 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5 Feb 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Panathinaikos vs. Fenerbahce Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Eyüpspor: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $106 +$119 +113%
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Feb 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series Feb 13 $43 +$97 +227%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Feb 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Feb 13 $44 +$75 +170%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15? Feb 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 39¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $14 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $18 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $38 6d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 6d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 6d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 6d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY FaZe 38¢ $65 120d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY FaZe 31¢ $47 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $18 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $19 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $1 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $2 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $4 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $8 120d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $53 121d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 24¢ $18 121d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 33¢ $33 121d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY Astralis 35¢ $50 121d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 28¢ $46 121d
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-02-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $44 122d
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-02-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 122d
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-02-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 122d
Will Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 122d
Göztepe SK vs. Kayserispor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $23 122d
Will Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 122d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $40 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 765 history records