Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f2…68f9 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-13%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$85
other 36% +$7
world 6% −$17
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 29% -11.5%
≤30d 44 -20.6% -28.2% 34% 32% -26.6%
≤90d 44 -20.6% -28.2% 34% 32% -26.6%
all 44 -20.6% -28.2% 34% 32% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 32% -26.6%
10% -35.1% 30% -33.6%
15% -41.3% 27% -40.0%
20% -47.1% 16% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage30d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$17 -57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$10 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 −$10 -28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$20 +162%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$21 +94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$8 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$12 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 −$2 -30%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $11 −$5 -49%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs May 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $15 −$12 -80%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Jessica Bouzas Man May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 21 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +23%
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Chris Rodesch vs Leandro Riedi May 19 $10 −$6 -64%
Bengaluru 3: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Kriish Tyagi May 19 $10 +$6 +57%
ITF Takasaki: Yuriko Lily Miyazaki vs Sara Saito May 19 $9 −$9 -99%
ITF Gimcheon: Taisei Ichikawa vs Yun Seong Chung May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Istanbul: Maxim Mrva vs Jonas Forejtek May 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Istanbul: Daniel Michalski vs Marat Sharipov May 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 18 $10 $0 -5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $6 −$5 -76%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur G May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Max Hans Rehberg vs Francisco Comesana May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 44m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $31 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.62 · official $9.62 (match) · 94 history records