Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f1…da32 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$487 (-10%) realized −$652 · open +$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$292
world 13% −$600
sports 5% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -21.6%
≤30d 28 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -21.6%
≤90d 28 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -21.6%
all 28 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 29% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.5% 29% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -53.4% 25% -29.1%
15% -57.9% 18% -36.0%
20% -62.1% 11% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$101 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized−$652
Unrealized+$165
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 92¢ $200 $345 +$145 (+73%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $104 +$292 +281%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $612 +$274 +45%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $155 −$107 -69%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -96%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $329 +$142 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 −$74 -72%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $307 +$253 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$49 +16%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $515 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 +$32 +32%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $205 +$340 +166%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $83 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $203 +$55 +27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$83 -41%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $103 −$89 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $886 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $123 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 39¢ $166 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $42 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $612 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 69¢ $510 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 5h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $560 5h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $307 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.60 · official $464.60 (match) · 62 history records