Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3f0…cf6d other 80 markets active 3h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,910 (-21%) realized −$1,982 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$90
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,493
politics 33% +$590
crypto 6% −$486
world 5% −$288
tech 3% −$145
sports 2% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 25% -37.6%
≤30d 8 -13.5% -21.7% 12% 12% -29.7%
≤90d 22 -55.9% -60.1% 9% 9% -68.4%
all 66 -36.4% -42.4% 18% 17% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 17% -32.3%
10% -47.9% 17% -38.8%
15% -53.0% 15% -44.7%
20% -57.6% 15% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$71 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized−$1,982
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)66 / 80
History coverage597d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $90 $156 +$66 (+73%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $104 $101 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $103 $96 −$7 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $93 $84 −$9 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $42 $57 +$15 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $102 −$15 -15%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $90 −$59 -65%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $46 −$15 -33%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $10 +$12 +120%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -53%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $154 −$7 -4%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $135 −$130 -96%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $27 −$26 -95%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 15 $197 −$191 -97%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $149 −$143 -96%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $109 −$104 -95%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 08 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $20 +$17 +84%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $195 −$16 -8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 28 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 22 $30 −$20 -66%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 18 $20 −$11 -54%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $136 −$108 -80%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 27 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 26 $7 −$2 -35%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jun 21 $250 −$145 -58%
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $171 +$222 +130%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $107 +$95 +88%
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $55 +$53 +97%
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $62 −$37 -59%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $363 −$209 -58%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $77 −$5 -6%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $57 −$6 -11%
Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $58 −$14 -24%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $400 −$149 -37%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 08 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 08 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $456 +$144 +32%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 12 $190 +$150 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $55 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $86 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $22 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 68¢ $22 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 12d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States BUY 8¢ $10 12d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 15d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $147 16d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 40d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $135 40d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 40d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 40d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 40d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 40d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $871.64 · official $871.64 (match) · 384 history records