Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa3eb…c444 sports 343 markets active 4h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%180W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$51
weather 46% +$22
other 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 46 -1.1% -10.5% 80% 20% -9.4%
all 342 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 44% -12.0%
10% -21.4% 43% -20.4%
15% -29.0% 43% -28.1%
20% -36.0% 43% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses180 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage215d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 78°F or higher on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2? May 07 $27 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 1? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 24? May 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 18 Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? Apr 12 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11 Apr 12 $24 +$16 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11? Apr 11 $14 +$3 +25%
1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-0.5) Apr 11 $4 +$3 +83%
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5 Apr 11 $10 −$8 -84%
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5 Apr 11 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or higher on April 8 Apr 10 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 9? Apr 10 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6? Apr 10 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 4? Apr 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 4? Apr 06 $41 +$3 +7%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 1? Apr 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 1? Apr 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 1? Apr 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 27? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23? Mar 24 $1 +$2 +233%
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Mar 24 $3 +$3 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23? Mar 24 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 24? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 24? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 230.5 Mar 16 $1 +$3 +309%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Pistons vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5 Mar 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 35d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 36d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 36d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 37d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 37d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 37d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 37d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 37d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 78°F or higher on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 38d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 38d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 38d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 41d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 44d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 44d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 44d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 44d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2? BUY Yes 93¢ $18 49d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 49d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 49d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 560 history records