Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3e7…a1c5 politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$8
sports 20% −$3
culture 15% −$5
other 13% −$4
economics 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
all 63 -5.3% -14.4% 11% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -22.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -30.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage273d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+188%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 01 $137 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $1 +$1 +155%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $137 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $69 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $68 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $2 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $1 $0 -33%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will Rob Riggle win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Nov 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $85 −$4 -4%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $4 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $66 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $65 4d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 19d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $69 113d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $69 129d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 142d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $69 142d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $69 143d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 145d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 238 history records