Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A3 0xa3e4…aa1d crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$23 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$1
other 13% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +23.8% +12.0% 68% 62% +1.9%
≤30d 44 +18.1% +6.8% 66% 59% -5.8%
≤90d 44 +18.1% +6.8% 66% 59% -5.8%
all 44 +18.1% +6.8% 66% 59% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 59% -5.8%
10% -3.4% 48% -14.8%
15% -12.7% 34% -23.0%
20% -21.3% 25% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 83¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$21 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$18 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$22 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$25 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$44 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.51 · official $41.07 (match) · 162 history records