Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3e2…fdf8 weather 772 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$177,977 (-810%) realized −$180,886 · open +$2,909
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +196% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip
Net edge+128%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%102W / 109L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3170.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36,792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$2,080
weather 32% +$1,525
politics 2% +$19
sports 2% +$181
world 1% +$37
culture 1% −$64
tech 1% −$5
economics 0% −$35
finance 0% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+167.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +195.6% +167.4% 48% 43% -2.2%
≤30d 211 +195.6% +167.4% 48% 43% -2.2%
≤90d 211 +195.6% +167.4% 48% 43% -2.2%
all 211 +195.6% +167.4% 48% 43% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3170.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +167.4% 43% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +141.8% 39% -11.6%
15% +118.5% 38% -20.1%
20% +97.1% 33% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +196% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +240% → late +152% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$21 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36,792
Realized−$180,886
Unrealized+$2,909
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses102 / 109
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions497
Markets (closed)211 / 772
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3170.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 497 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? No 94¢ 100¢ $193 $204 +$12 (+6%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $159 $198 +$40 (+25%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 91¢ 96¢ $186 $197 +$10 (+6%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 90¢ 97¢ $183 $196 +$13 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 96¢ 95¢ $195 $194 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? No 59¢ 100¢ $112 $191 +$79 (+71%)
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 83¢ $179 $168 −$10 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-28 House seat? No 90¢ 91¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? No 94¢ 99¢ $147 $155 +$8 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat? No 89¢ 86¢ $159 $153 −$6 (-4%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $144 $151 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? No 80¢ 100¢ $116 $145 +$29 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? No 80¢ 100¢ $111 $138 +$27 (+24%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $122 $137 +$15 (+13%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $127 $136 +$9 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19? No 55¢ 100¢ $74 $136 +$61 (+82%)
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 90¢ 100¢ $121 $133 +$13 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? No 73¢ 100¢ $97 $133 +$35 (+36%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $104 $127 +$24 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? No 58¢ 100¢ $73 $127 +$54 (+73%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner The World 0¢ 50¢ $0 $126 +$126 (+49850%)
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $121 $125 +$4 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 62¢ 100¢ $76 $121 +$45 (+60%)
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 85¢ 97¢ $105 $120 +$15 (+14%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $108 $119 +$12 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 19 $55 +$34 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 19 $64 +$23 +36%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $0 +$92 +96363%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 +$21 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 19 $56 −$32 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$53 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $35 −$23 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $23 −$17 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $63 −$29 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $24 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $73 −$8 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $27 −$24 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? Jun 19 $32 −$14 -45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day Jun 19 $166 +$6 +4%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 19 $39 +$45 +116%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 19 $108 −$13 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $45 −$19 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? Jun 19 $52 −$46 -89%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 19 $78 −$32 -40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $119 −$29 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 19 $49 −$41 -85%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 19 $39 −$29 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $72 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $0 +$55 +193112%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 −$14 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $48 −$43 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $35 −$31 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $25 −$18 -70%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 19 $62 −$34 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $39 −$14 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $23 −$2 -8%
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 19 $16 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $42 +$114 +270%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $66 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 +$46 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $82 −$41 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$94 +460%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $98 −$24 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $93 −$45 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $66 +$57 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 −$21 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$37 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$76 +302%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$42 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 47¢ $4 0m
Will Chris Kirk make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $22 0m
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? BUY No 50¢ $28 2m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2m
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $3 4m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $4 13m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $24 14m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $4 14m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 78¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 36¢ $7 16m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 16m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 63¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $4 18m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,792.45 · official $76,710.80 · 3500 history records