Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3e1…dc15 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
politics 17% $0
other 12% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 46 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage272d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $75 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 04 $27 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 26 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $14 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $24 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $22 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $8 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $5 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $35 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $17 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $18 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $36 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $16 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $20 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $19 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.70 (match) · 164 history records