Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
A3 0xa3e1…d10d sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$6,593 (+27%) realized +$7,449 · open −$856
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$755per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$255
30 days+$1,695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$7,122
other 33% −$4,845
tech 14% +$1,297
world 4% +$2,667
politics 2% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +35.9% +23.0% 67% 67% +8.8%
≤90d 26 +64.8% +49.1% 58% 58% +40.7%
all 29 +52.1% +37.6% 52% 52% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.6% 52% +21.4%
10% +24.5% 48% +9.8%
15% +12.4% 48% -0.8%
20% +1.4% 48% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$779) neutral
Persistence
early +70% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,051 vs −$625 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$2,666
Realized+$7,449
Unrealized−$856
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage159d
Avg bet$755
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2,453 $1,722 −$731 (-30%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $600 $495 −$105 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $470 $450 −$20 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $507 +$438 +86%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,492 −$1,480 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,410 +$1,092 +78%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,864 +$205 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $498 −$489 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $597 +$1,159 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $599 +$988 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $797 −$779 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $628 +$561 +89%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $657 +$689 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $635 +$1,022 +161%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $496 −$484 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $500 −$489 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $497 −$486 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $306 +$764 +249%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Sco Apr 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $780 +$887 +114%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $600 +$1,179 +197%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $1,000 +$893 +89%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $500 +$3,168 +634%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $250 +$689 +275%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Apr 22 $237 −$237 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $289 −$289 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Apr 22 $498 −$498 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $600 +$2,029 +338%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 26 $702 −$415 -59%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $2,020 −$2,017 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? Feb 26 $600 −$86 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $604 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $483 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,993 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 24¢ $478 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $502 9d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $507 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $989 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 57¢ $544 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 56¢ $509 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 52¢ $357 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 38¢ $498 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $1,756 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $597 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,587 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $599 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $797 23d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 26¢ $775 23d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 27¢ $8 23d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 27¢ $6 23d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 27¢ $3 23d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 27¢ $4 23d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 27¢ $0 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 27¢ $1 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 27¢ $360 25d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 27¢ $515 25d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,189 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,666.39 · official $2,666.39 (match) · 96 history records