Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa3e0…43b9 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$300 (-1%) realized −$395 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%48W / 31L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days−$46
14 days+$68
30 days−$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$121
other 23% +$90
tech 12% +$131
politics 10% +$160
sports 8% +$88
crypto 7% −$872
economics 1% +$14
culture 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.8% -4.3% 64% 55% -5.8%
≤30d 43 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 40% -12.6%
≤90d 71 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 31% -10.9%
all 79 +2.4% -7.4% 61% 34% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 34% -10.0%
10% -16.2% 25% -18.6%
15% -24.3% 22% -26.5%
20% -31.7% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$101 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,242
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses48 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)79 / 85
History coverage147d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $365 $332 −$33 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $220 $312 +$92 (+42%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $181 $218 +$37 (+20%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $177 $178 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 95¢ 91¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $123 +$13 +11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $182 +$87 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $109 +$48 +44%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $149 −$59 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$43 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $121 +$75 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $121 +$26 +22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$30 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $95 +$82 +87%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$108 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $253 +$127 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $86 +$67 +78%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 −$67 -26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $278 −$164 -59%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 15 $454 −$269 -59%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,393 −$52 -4%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $212 +$11 +5%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $402 +$127 +32%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $183 +$17 +9%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $330 +$11 +3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $66 −$11 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2,688 −$953 -35%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 07 $162 −$48 -30%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $709 +$108 +15%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 31 $501 +$9 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $15 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $508 +$24 +5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 31 $563 +$66 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $354 −$217 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $500 −$5 -1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $324 +$213 +66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $5,391 +$86 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $700 −$192 -27%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $136 +$16 +12%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 23 $815 +$53 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 22 $2,581 −$14 -1%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 21 $856 −$15 -2%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $114 +$67 +59%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 20 $218 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $77 +$6 +7%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $131 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $65 6h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 86¢ $66 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $123 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $302 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $48 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $60 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $120 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 94¢ $146 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 95¢ $160 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 92¢ $147 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $121 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 92¢ $131 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 95¢ $270 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,242.21 · official $1,242.22 (match) · 298 history records