Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3de…ee7f
crypto · 107 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,492 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,447 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,447
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 61
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage178d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$684
7 days+$261
14 days+$261
30 days+$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 52¢ 56¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? No 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? No 9¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $336 $0 −$336 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $578 $0 −$578 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$145 +681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$45 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$205 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$60 +566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$37 +269%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$101 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$35 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$35 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$14 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$34 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$33 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$30 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$386
other 17% −$1,106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +22.2% +10.5% 46% 46% +1.4%
≤30d 100 +14.1% +3.2% 44% 44% +3.7%
≤90d 103 +10.8% +0.2% 43% 43% -13.1%
all 105 +9.1% -1.3% 42% 42% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 42% -27.1%
10% -10.7% 42% -34.0%
15% -19.4% 41% -40.4%
20% -27.3% 41% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.31 · official $52.38 (match) · 221 history records