Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3de…111a world 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,567 (+9%) realized +$1,961 · open −$394
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%36W / 44L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day79.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$193
14 days+$874
30 days+$2,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1,984
politics 12% −$295
crypto 7% +$201
finance 6% −$151
economics 5% −$91
other 4% −$24
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 40% -0.6%
≤30d 58 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 31% +7.8%
≤90d 80 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 32% +6.1%
all 80 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 32% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 32% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 24% -4.0%
15% -28.1% 16% -13.3%
20% -35.2% 14% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$31 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2,057
Realized+$1,961
Unrealized−$394
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses36 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)80 / 126
History coverage33d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day79.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $210 $223 +$13 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $195 $195 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $232 $143 −$89 (-38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 82¢ $124 $127 +$3 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 74¢ $80 $110 +$30 (+38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 94¢ $66 $108 +$42 (+63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 74¢ 87¢ $61 $71 +$10 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $49 $26 −$23 (-47%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 72¢ 60¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 91¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+54%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+87%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 60¢ 90¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+49%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 99¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $349 +$57 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $110 −$76 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $311 −$4 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $130 −$5 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $90 −$10 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $276 −$228 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $337 +$210 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $286 +$242 +84%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $51 +$6 +13%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $40 +$8 +21%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $51 +$14 +27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $936 +$169 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $573 +$33 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $200 −$65 -33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $12 +$4 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $579 +$412 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,461 −$42 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $700 +$199 +28%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $165 −$40 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $149 −$70 -47%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $58 −$39 -67%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $422 +$62 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $440 −$106 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 29 $12 −$11 -95%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 29 $20 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $52 −$39 -75%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $718 +$17 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $810 +$1,599 +197%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $118 −$6 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $84 +$26 +31%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $48 +$18 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $120 −$55 -46%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $70 +$68 +97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $12 +$2 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $30 −$4 -15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $8 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $418 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $44 −$6 -14%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $15 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 28¢ $8 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $15 11h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY No 64¢ $15 11h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $15 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $20 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $6 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,056.96 · official $2,056.93 (match) · 2725 history records