Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A3 0xa3dc…91d9 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$202 (+11%) realized +$201 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$104
14 days+$212
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$210
sports 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.9% +0.3% 100% 33% -1.9%
≤30d 7 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 43% +3.4%
≤90d 7 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 43% +3.4%
all 7 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 43% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 43% +3.4%
10% -5.5% 29% -6.5%
15% -14.6% 14% -15.6%
20% -23.0% 0% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 85¢ 84¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 86¢ $123 $125 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $101 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $210 +$17 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 +$23 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $374 +$17 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $351 +$24 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $247 +$107 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $141 5m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $121 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $101 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $228 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $210 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $124 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $103 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $103 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $391 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $374 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $351 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $354 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $247 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.49 · official $365.49 (match) · 17 history records