Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3db…0944 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$10
world 40% +$3
economics 5% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 16 +2.5% -7.2% 44% 12% -9.1%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 12% -8.5%
10% -18.3% 9% -17.3%
15% -26.2% 7% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage398d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $97 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -25%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $21 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $6 $0 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $44 +$5 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $4 +$4 +88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $4 −$2 -53%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8 6h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 16h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $34 16h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $43 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $49 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $49 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $35 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records