Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa3da…7a7e sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,845 (+17%) realized +$10,586 · open −$4,741
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,598per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$465est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,258
other 7% −$2,433
weather 2% +$4
crypto 1% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.1% -20.5% 33% 33% -13.3%
≤30d 14 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 21% -13.2%
≤90d 18 -0.0% -9.5% 61% 28% -12.3%
all 18 -0.0% -9.5% 61% 28% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 28% -12.3%
10% -18.2% 22% -20.7%
15% -26.1% 22% -28.4%
20% -33.4% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,162 vs −$1,930 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$4,907
Realized+$10,586
Unrealized−$4,741
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$465
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,598
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 100¢ $2,439 $3,998 +$1,559 (+64%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ $4,800 $900 −$3,900 (-81%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ $2,409 $9 −$2,400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $6,437 −$6,352 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6,032 +$1,248 +21%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7,133 −$6,996 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3,080 +$11,247 +365%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $103 −$101 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $17 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $62 +$66 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $88 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 20? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 06 $101 +$105 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 21 $111 +$111 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4,909 38m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $191 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $175 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $32 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $2,060 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $856 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,343 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,906.58 · official $4,906.58 (match) · 68 history records