Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A3 0xa3d8…d601 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+7%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$7
sports 16% +$1
economics 15% $0
world 11% +$1
politics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.7% +2.8% 75% 25% -1.2%
≤30d 4 +13.7% +2.8% 75% 25% -1.2%
≤90d 4 +13.7% +2.8% 75% 25% -1.2%
all 4 +13.7% +2.8% 75% 25% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 25% -1.2%
10% -7.0% 25% -10.7%
15% -16.0% 25% -19.3%
20% -24.2% 0% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$10 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $16 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $13 19h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $21 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $17 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $16 25h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $15 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $12 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.03 · official $45.04 (match) · 12 history records