Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa3d7…dde2 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-24%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$10
other 36% +$1
world 17% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.6% -39.0% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤30d 6 -57.8% -61.8% 17% 17% -49.2%
≤90d 6 -57.8% -61.8% 17% 17% -49.2%
all 6 -57.8% -61.8% 17% 17% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.8% 17% -49.2%
10% -65.5% 17% -54.1%
15% -68.8% 17% -58.5%
20% -71.9% 17% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage13d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $44 −$14 -33%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$20 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 11d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $44 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 13d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.90 · official $94.90 (match) · 26 history records