Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A3 0xa3d4…9969 crypto 47 markets active 64d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$191,982 (+69%) realized +$191,982 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$5,930per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$8,224
finance 43% +$204,806
crypto 7% −$4,901
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 42 +7.3% -3.0% 36% 36% +30.0%
all 47 +10.1% -0.4% 38% 38% +52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 38% +52.7%
10% -9.9% 38% +38.1%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 34% +24.7%
20% -26.6% 32% +12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
35.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13,221 vs −$1,596 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191,982
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage48d
Avg bet$5,930
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 22 $4,723 +$16,584 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 11 $500 +$424 +85%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $9,122 −$4,913 -54%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 08 $548 −$133 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $9,006 +$7,660 +85%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $6,356 +$15,087 +237%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 07 $825 −$63 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 07 $39,198 −$9,005 -23%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $780 −$125 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 07 $35,640 −$11,435 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 04 $2,412 −$2,412 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 04 $725 −$725 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 02 $600 +$253 +42%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 02 $6,400 +$4,063 +64%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $34,894 +$41,567 +119%
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? Apr 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 02 $14,411 +$51,106 +355%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $3,386 −$891 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 29 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 29 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 29 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 29 $355 −$355 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 29 $459 −$459 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 29 $644 −$157 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 29 $800 +$413 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 29 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 29 $1,750 +$1,434 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 29 $1,110 +$1,415 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $1,563 +$371 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 29 $195 +$195 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 28 $750 −$501 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 28 $300 +$772 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 28 $400 −$280 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 28 $650 +$1,279 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 28 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 28 $3,461 −$3,461 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 28 $5,000 −$1,008 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $27,500 −$2,073 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 26 $31,369 +$71,939 +229%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 22 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 22 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 18 $21,072 +$22,219 +105%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 16 $3,525 +$1,190 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 89¢ $11,885 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 88¢ $5,568 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 83¢ $1,824 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 67¢ $452 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 71¢ $1,578 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $300 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $200 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $4,209 77d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $415 78d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $16,666 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $14 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $3,800 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $7 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $86 78d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,356 79d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, SELL Yes 25¢ $762 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $12,904 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 24¢ $17,289 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $1 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $0 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $19 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $0 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $0 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $0 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 19¢ $0 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 18¢ $796 79d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $655 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $10,618 79d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $4,000 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $13,588 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1886 history records