Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A3 0xa3d2…0df5 crypto 1181 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$933 (+2%) realized +$962 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%635W / 708L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,525
other 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 163 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 368 -82.4% -84.0% 7% 7% -93.7%
all 1343 -7.3% -16.2% 47% 47% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 47% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 47% -24.3%
15% -31.5% 47% -31.6%
20% -38.2% 47% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$41 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$962
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses635 / 708
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1343 / 1181
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $22 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $16 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $48 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $43 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 3500 history records