Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3d0…ec04
crypto · 944 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,166 -95%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,168 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$6,168
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses558 / 701
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1259 / 944
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day670.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 1259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,580
7 days−$6,168
14 days−$6,168
30 days−$6,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 51¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 59¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 54¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 61¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 70¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 15¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+567%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 42¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+140%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 42¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+138%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 41¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+144%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $394 −$394 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$597
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1259 -20.9% -28.4% 44% 41% -53.9%
≤30d 1259 -20.9% -28.4% 44% 41% -53.9%
≤90d 1259 -20.9% -28.4% 44% 41% -53.9%
all 1259 -20.9% -28.4% 44% 41% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover670.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 41% -53.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 35% -58.3%
15% -41.5% 28% -62.3%
20% -47.2% 19% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.44 · official $10.47 · 3500 history records